3260 papers • 126 benchmarks • 313 datasets
A branch of predictive analysis that attempts to predict some future state of a business process.
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This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks and shows that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp.
This work proposes the Heterogeneous Object Event Graph encoding (HOEG), which integrates events and objects into a graph structure with diverse node types, thus creating a more nuanced and informative representation.
A framework for prescriptive process monitoring is proposed, which extends predictive process monitoring approaches with the concepts of alarms, interventions, compensations, and mitigation effects and incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost-benefit tradeoffs of applying prescriptives process monitoring in a given setting.
This case study shows that ORANGE can be effectively used to smartly monitor the outcome of ongoing negotiations by early highlighting negotiations that are candidate to be completed successfully.
A framework for prescriptive process monitoring is proposed, which extends predictive monitoring with the ability to generate alarms that trigger interventions to prevent an undesired outcome or mitigate its effect and incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost–benefit trade-off of generating alarms.
In this article, we introduce <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">${\sf PROPHET}$</tex-math><alternatives><mml:math><mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif">PROPHET</mml:mi></mml:math><inline-graphic xlink:href="pasquadibisceglie-ieq3-3463487.gif"/></alternatives></inline-formula>, an innovative approach to predictive process monitoring based on Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks. <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">${\sf PROPHET}$</tex-math><alternatives><mml:math><mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif">PROPHET</mml:mi></mml:math><inline-graphic xlink:href="pasquadibisceglie-ieq4-3463487.gif"/></alternatives></inline-formula> is designed to strike a balance between accurate predictions and interpretability, particularly focusing on the next-activity prediction task. For this purpose, we represent the event traces recorded for different business process executions as heterogeneous graphs within a multi-view learning scheme combined with a heterogeneous graph learning approach. Using heterogeneous Graph Attention Networks (GATs), we achieve good accuracy by incorporating different characteristics of several events into graphs with different node types and leveraging different types of graph links to express relationships between event characteristics, as well as relationships between events. In addition, the use of a GAT model enables the integration of a modified version of the GNN Explainer algorithm to add the explainable component to the predictive model. In particular, the GNN Explainer algorithm is modified to disclose explainable information related to characteristics, events and relationships between events that mainly influenced the prediction. Experiments with various benchmark event logs prove the accuracy of <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">${\sf PROPHET}$</tex-math><alternatives><mml:math><mml:mi mathvariant="sans-serif">PROPHET</mml:mi></mml:math><inline-graphic xlink:href="pasquadibisceglie-ieq5-3463487.gif"/></alternatives></inline-formula> compared to several current state-of-the-art methods and draw insights from explanations recovered through the GNN Explainer algorithm.
This paper is the first to apply Bayesian neural networks' uncertainty estimates themselves to predictive process monitoring and found that they contribute towards more accurate predictions and work quickly.
This paper draws on evaluation measures used in the field of explainable AI and proposes functionally-grounded evaluation metrics for assessing explainable methods in predictive process analytics and applies the proposed metrics to evaluate the performance of LIME and SHAP in interpreting process predictive models built on XGBoost.
A novel adversarial training framework based on an adaptation of Generative Adversarial Networks to the realm of sequential temporal data is proposed, which systematically outperforms all baselines both in terms of accuracy and earliness of the prediction, despite using a simple network architecture and a naive feature encoding.
This paper defines a notion of temporal stability for binary classification tasks in predictive process monitoring and evaluates existing methods with respect to both temporal stability and accuracy and finds that methods based on XGBoost and LSTM neural networks exhibit the highest temporal stability.
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